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California Considers First Public Wildfire Catastrophe Model

Conceptual image of wildfire risk assessment with forest and insurance symbols

California, September 27, 2025

News Summary

California Governor Gavin Newsom is reviewing Senate Bill 429, which proposes creating the nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model. The aim is to enhance wildfire risk assessments and insurance regulation. The bill seeks to establish a program within the California Department of Insurance to fund research necessary for the new model. Advocates believe this could improve insurance market stability and transparency, but concerns about the transparency of underlying algorithms have been raised by consumer groups.

California Governor Gavin Newsom is currently reviewing Senate Bill 429, which aims to establish the nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model. This legislative proposal seeks to enhance the state’s comprehensive approach to wildfire risk assessment and the regulation of insurance.

The initiative comes as California has implemented guidelines requiring insurers with over $10 million in written premiums in the state to submit fire risk data for their insured residential properties. Under the current law, the California insurance commissioner is responsible for making this fire risk information accessible to the public. SB 429 proposes the creation of a Wildfire Safety and Risk Mitigation Program within the California Department of Insurance, which will fund research necessary for developing the public wildfire catastrophe model.

The proposed model is intended to be a critical resource for formulating risk mitigation strategies, conducting actuarial analyses, and overseeing insurance rate adjustments. This initiative follows earlier developments in July, when the California Department of Insurance certified the Verisk Wildfire Model as the first approved model to be utilized for insurance rate-setting in the state. The Verisk model is already established in other states and was created by the firm’s Extreme Event Solutions unit.

Supporters of Senate Bill 429, including the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, have expressed that advanced catastrophe models are essential for stabilizing California’s insurance market and improving access to coverage. However, consumer advocacy groups such as Consumer Watchdog have raised concerns regarding the transparency and accountability of the new regulations, especially regarding the climate model algorithms utilized by insurers.

State Senator Dave Cortese has emphasized the significance of the proposed public model in equipping lawmakers with data to respond to inquiries from constituents. Critical questions include the reasons behind insurance rate increases and the geographical disparities observed in those rates. Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara has voiced support for the public wildfire model, asserting that it will foster greater insurance affordability and provide essential insights into mitigating wildfire risks.

The introduction of Senate Bill 429 is part of a broader legislative package aimed at addressing wildfire risks and the challenges faced in the insurance sector. The bill encountered minimal opposition throughout the legislative process.

By implementing the public model, California aims to enhance transparency in wildfire risk assessments, potentially serving as a check on both private insurers’ models and the regulatory responses from the Department of Insurance. Consumer advocates have criticized existing strategies for their lack of transparency and have called for reforms to ensure that mitigation efforts are adequately reflected in insurance pricing. They have pointed to successful measures implemented in Colorado as potential templates for improvement. However, it’s important to note that the passage of the bill does not guarantee the actual development of the model or that it will yield distinct findings from those produced by private models currently in use by insurers.

Impact and Future Considerations

As California continues to battle increasingly severe wildfire seasons, the establishment of a public wildfire catastrophe model could transform the way wildfire risks are assessed and managed in relation to insurance rates. The effectiveness of this model in achieving transparency and accountability in the insurance market remains to be seen, especially in the wake of past criticisms regarding the handling of wildfire risk data.

Summary of Key Features of Senate Bill 429

Feature Description
Public Wildfire Catastrophe Model The nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model aimed at transparency in wildfire risk assessment.
Wildfire Safety and Risk Mitigation Program A program under the California Department of Insurance to fund research for the model.
Enhanced Risk Assessment The new model will aid in formulating risk mitigation strategies and inform insurance rate oversight.
If Passed, Will Model Distinct Findings? Passing the bill does not guarantee distinct findings compared to private insurers’ models.

FAQ

What is Senate Bill 429?

Senate Bill 429 aims to establish the nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model and expand the state’s approach to wildfire risk assessment and insurance regulation.

What is the purpose of the public wildfire catastrophe model?

The model is intended to formulate risk mitigation strategies, inform actuarial analyses, and support oversight of insurance rates.

What are the concerns raised by consumer advocates?

Consumer advocates have raised concerns over transparency and accountability regarding the new regulations about climate model algorithms used by insurers.

Deeper Dive: News & Info About This Topic

California Considers First Public Wildfire Catastrophe Model

STAFF HERE COSTA MESA WRITER
Author: STAFF HERE COSTA MESA WRITER

The COSTA MESA STAFF WRITER represents the experienced team at HERECostaMesa.com, your go-to source for actionable local news and information in Costa Mesa, Orange County, and beyond. Specializing in "news you can use," we cover essential topics like product reviews for personal and business needs, local business directories, politics, real estate trends, neighborhood insights, and state news affecting the area—with deep expertise drawn from years of dedicated reporting and strong community input, including local press releases and business updates. We deliver top reporting on high-value events such as the OC Fair, Concerts in the Park, and Fish Fry. Our coverage extends to key organizations like the Costa Mesa Chamber of Commerce and Boys & Girls Clubs of Central Orange Coast, plus leading businesses in retail, fashion, and technology that power the local economy such as Vans, Experian, and South Coast Plaza. As part of the broader HERE network, including HEREAnaheim.com, HEREBeverlyHills.com, HERECoronado.com, HEREHollywood.com, HEREHuntingtonBeach.com, HERELongBeach.com, HERELosAngeles.com, HEREMissionViejo.com, HERESanDiego.com, and HERESantaAna.com, we provide comprehensive, credible insights into California's dynamic landscape.

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